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Oceania

Papua New Guinea

Warmer than average

Seasonal outlook

September to November 2026

Likely warmer than usual

The European seasonal forecast model expects Papua New Guinea to average about 0.5°C warmer than usual for this time of year.

Cooler 26%About usual 26%Warmer 48%

Estimated chance of each outcome. With no forecast signal, each would be about 1 in 3.

Moderate confidence
A clear lean, but surprises are possible.
Source
European seasonal forecast (ECMWF), via Copernicus
Technical details
  • Model: ECMWF SEAS5 (system 51) ensemble mean, from the Copernicus Climate Data Store.
  • 2 m air temperature anomaly: +0.53°C, averaged over September to November 2026, relative to the model's 1993 to 2016 average.
  • Taken at the model grid point nearest -6.30, 143.90, so it represents that area rather than the whole country.
  • Chances (cooler / about usual / warmer): 26% / 26% / 48%. Estimated by Nino Tracker from the size of the anomaly, because the ensemble mean product does not include the model's own odds.
  • Confidence is set by the anomaly's size: under 0.5°C low, 0.5 to 1°C moderate, 1°C or more high.

El Niño right now

Strong El Niño

El Niño is a natural warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean that shifts weather patterns around the world. Over June to August 2026, sea temperatures there averaged about 1.8°C above normal, which counts as a strong event.

Technical details
  • Oceanic Niño Index (ONI): +1.80 for JJA 2026. It is the 3-month average sea surface temperature anomaly in the Niño 3.4 region (5°N to 5°S, 120°W to 170°W), from NOAA.
  • El Niño conditions are +0.5°C or more, La Niña −0.5°C or less, sustained for five overlapping 3-month seasons. Strength: weak 0.5 to 0.9, moderate 1.0 to 1.4, strong 1.5 to 1.9, very strong 2.0 or more.
  • NOAA now uses a relative version of this index (RONI) for official monitoring. The ONI is still published each month.
  • Last updated Sep 23, 2026, 6:38 PM UTC.

Upcoming 7 Days

Port Moresby
23–29°
Partly cloudy
25.7° avg
Last year
25.9° avg
About the same
Lae
23–29°
Showers
24.6° avg
Last year
25.7° avg
1.1° warmer
Mount Hagen
14–24°
Drizzle
18.0° avg
Last year
17.8° avg
About the same
Rabaul
24–30°
Partly cloudy
26.5° avg
Last year
27.1° avg
0.6° warmer
Last year this week · Sep 23 to 29, 2025

Across these 4 cities, it averaged 24.1°, about the same as this week's forecast of 23.7°.

Updated Sep 23, 2026, 6:38 PM UTC

Nino Tracker updates weather data two times a day.