Oceania
Papua New Guinea El Niño 2026 outlook
Warmer than average
Seasonal outlook
October to December 2026
Likely warmer than usual
The European seasonal forecast model expects Papua New Guinea to average about 0.8°C warmer than usual for this time of year.
Estimated chance of each outcome. With no forecast signal, each would be about 1 in 3.
Technical details
- Model: ECMWF SEAS5 (system 51) ensemble mean, from the Copernicus Climate Data Store.
- 2 m air temperature anomaly: +0.85°C, averaged over October to December 2026, relative to the model's 1993 to 2016 average.
- Taken at the model grid point nearest -6.30, 143.90, so it represents that area rather than the whole country.
- Chances (cooler / about usual / warmer): 26% / 26% / 48%. Estimated by Niño Tracker from the size of the anomaly, because the ensemble mean product does not include the model's own odds.
- Confidence is set by the anomaly's size: under 0.5°C low, 0.5 to 1°C moderate, 1°C or more high.
El Niño right now
Very strong El Niño
El Niño is a natural warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean that shifts weather patterns around the world. Over July to September 2026, sea temperatures there averaged about 2.2°C above normal, which counts as a very strong event.
Technical details
- Oceanic Niño Index (ONI): +2.16 for JAS 2026. It is the 3-month average sea surface temperature anomaly in the Niño 3.4 region (5°N to 5°S, 120°W to 170°W), from NOAA.
- El Niño conditions are +0.5°C or more, La Niña −0.5°C or less, sustained for five overlapping 3-month seasons. Strength: weak 0.5 to 0.9, moderate 1.0 to 1.4, strong 1.5 to 1.9, very strong 2.0 or more.
- NOAA now uses a relative version of this index (RONI) for official monitoring. The ONI is still published each month.
- Last updated Oct 23, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC.
Upcoming 7 Days
Port Moresby
- This week avg
- 26.7°
- Last year avg
- 27.5°
than the same week last year, on average.
Daily average
Temperatures in °C. Tap or hover the chart to compare each day.
Across these 4 cities, it averaged 24.9°, about the same as this week's forecast of 24.8°.
Niño Tracker updates weather data two times a day.
El Niño and Papua New Guinea: common questions
How will El Niño affect Papua New Guinea in 2026?
The European seasonal forecast model expects Papua New Guinea to average about 0.8°C warmer than usual for this time of year. The forecast covers October to December 2026. A clear lean, but surprises are possible.
How does El Niño usually affect Papua New Guinea?
Typical effects of past El Niño events in Papua New Guinea: drier, warmer; frost risk in highlands. Every event is different, so these are tendencies rather than guarantees.
How does La Niña affect Papua New Guinea?
Typical effects of past La Niña events in Papua New Guinea: wetter than average. La Niña often pushes weather roughly the opposite way to El Niño.
What is the weather forecast for Papua New Guinea this week?
Over the next 7 days, forecast lows and highs are: Port Moresby 24 to 30°C, Lae 22 to 31°C, Mount Hagen 11 to 26°C and Rabaul 25 to 32°C. Across these cities the average is 24.8°C. That is about the same as the same week last year (24.9°C).
Is El Niño happening right now?
El Niño is a natural warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean that shifts weather patterns around the world. Over July to September 2026, sea temperatures there averaged about 2.2°C above normal, which counts as a very strong event. El Niño continues to strengthen, with a strong-to-very strong El Niño likely through January-March 2027 (remaining greater than an 83% chance).