Current ENSO status
El Nino · strong
El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27.
Countries by region
North America
United StatesWarmer than averageECMWF seasonal forecast: mean 2m temperature anomaly +0.86°C over the next 3 months
CanadaWarmer than averageECMWF seasonal forecast: mean 2m temperature anomaly +1.65°C over the next 3 months
MexicoWarmer than averageECMWF seasonal forecast: mean 2m temperature anomaly +0.65°C over the next 3 months
South America
PeruWarmer than averageECMWF seasonal forecast: mean 2m temperature anomaly +1.56°C over the next 3 months
EcuadorWarmer than averageECMWF seasonal forecast: mean 2m temperature anomaly +1.12°C over the next 3 months
ColombiaWarmer than averageECMWF seasonal forecast: mean 2m temperature anomaly +1.78°C over the next 3 months
BrazilWarmer than averageECMWF seasonal forecast: mean 2m temperature anomaly +1.43°C over the next 3 months
ArgentinaCooler than averageECMWF seasonal forecast: mean 2m temperature anomaly -0.89°C over the next 3 months
Southeast Asia
IndonesiaWarmer than averageECMWF seasonal forecast: mean 2m temperature anomaly +1.42°C over the next 3 months
PhilippinesWarmer than averageECMWF seasonal forecast: mean 2m temperature anomaly +0.72°C over the next 3 months
VietnamWarmer than averageECMWF seasonal forecast: mean 2m temperature anomaly +1.11°C over the next 3 months
Oceania
AustraliaWarmer than averageECMWF seasonal forecast: mean 2m temperature anomaly +1.17°C over the next 3 months
Papua New GuineaWarmer than averageECMWF seasonal forecast: mean 2m temperature anomaly +0.53°C over the next 3 months
New ZealandWarmer than averageECMWF seasonal forecast: mean 2m temperature anomaly +0.46°C over the next 3 months
South Asia
IndiaEast Africa
KenyaWarmer than averageECMWF seasonal forecast: mean 2m temperature anomaly +0.95°C over the next 3 months
EthiopiaWarmer than averageECMWF seasonal forecast: mean 2m temperature anomaly +2.2°C over the next 3 months
SomaliaWarmer than averageECMWF seasonal forecast: mean 2m temperature anomaly +0.78°C over the next 3 months
TanzaniaWarmer than averageECMWF seasonal forecast: mean 2m temperature anomaly +0.7°C over the next 3 months
Southern Africa
South AfricaWarmer than averageECMWF seasonal forecast: mean 2m temperature anomaly +1.2°C over the next 3 months
ZimbabweWarmer than averageECMWF seasonal forecast: mean 2m temperature anomaly +0.35°C over the next 3 months
MozambiqueNear averageECMWF seasonal forecast: mean 2m temperature anomaly +0.17°C over the next 3 months
East Asia
JapanWarmer than averageECMWF seasonal forecast: mean 2m temperature anomaly +1.52°C over the next 3 months
ChinaWarmer than averageECMWF seasonal forecast: mean 2m temperature anomaly +0.83°C over the next 3 months