All countries

Southern Africa

South Africa

Warmer than average

Seasonal outlook

September to November 2026

Likely warmer than usual

The European seasonal forecast model expects South Africa to average about 1.2°C warmer than usual for this time of year.

Cooler 21%About usual 21%Warmer 58%

Estimated chance of each outcome. With no forecast signal, each would be about 1 in 3.

High confidence
A strong signal. Outcomes usually follow it, but not always.
Source
European seasonal forecast (ECMWF), via Copernicus
Technical details
  • Model: ECMWF SEAS5 (system 51) ensemble mean, from the Copernicus Climate Data Store.
  • 2 m air temperature anomaly: +1.20°C, averaged over September to November 2026, relative to the model's 1993 to 2016 average.
  • Taken at the model grid point nearest -30.60, 22.90, so it represents that area rather than the whole country.
  • Chances (cooler / about usual / warmer): 21% / 21% / 58%. Estimated by Nino Tracker from the size of the anomaly, because the ensemble mean product does not include the model's own odds.
  • Confidence is set by the anomaly's size: under 0.5°C low, 0.5 to 1°C moderate, 1°C or more high.

El Niño right now

Strong El Niño

El Niño is a natural warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean that shifts weather patterns around the world. Over June to August 2026, sea temperatures there averaged about 1.8°C above normal, which counts as a strong event.

Technical details
  • Oceanic Niño Index (ONI): +1.80 for JJA 2026. It is the 3-month average sea surface temperature anomaly in the Niño 3.4 region (5°N to 5°S, 120°W to 170°W), from NOAA.
  • El Niño conditions are +0.5°C or more, La Niña −0.5°C or less, sustained for five overlapping 3-month seasons. Strength: weak 0.5 to 0.9, moderate 1.0 to 1.4, strong 1.5 to 1.9, very strong 2.0 or more.
  • NOAA now uses a relative version of this index (RONI) for official monitoring. The ONI is still published each month.
  • Last updated Sep 23, 2026, 6:56 PM UTC.

Upcoming 7 Days

Pretoria
10–30°
Partly cloudy
21.1° avg
Last year
18.6° avg
2.5° cooler
Cape Town
13–24°
Drizzle
16.7° avg
Last year
16.0° avg
0.7° cooler
Johannesburg
8–26°
Drizzle
18.6° avg
Last year
16.8° avg
1.8° cooler
Durban
14–27°
Drizzle
20.2° avg
Last year
18.1° avg
2.1° cooler
Last year this week · Sep 23 to 29, 2025

Across these 4 cities, it averaged 17.4°, 1.8° cooler than this week's forecast of 19.1°.

Updated Sep 23, 2026, 6:56 PM UTC

Nino Tracker updates weather data two times a day.