All countries

Southern Africa

Mozambique

Near average

Seasonal outlook

September to November 2026

Likely close to usual

The European seasonal forecast model expects temperatures in Mozambique to stay close to usual for this time of year.

Cooler 29%About usual 41%Warmer 30%

Estimated chance of each outcome. With no forecast signal, each would be about 1 in 3.

Low confidence
Only a slight lean, so treat it as a rough guide.
Source
European seasonal forecast (ECMWF), via Copernicus
Technical details
  • Model: ECMWF SEAS5 (system 51) ensemble mean, from the Copernicus Climate Data Store.
  • 2 m air temperature anomaly: +0.17°C, averaged over September to November 2026, relative to the model's 1993 to 2016 average.
  • Taken at the model grid point nearest -18.70, 35.50, so it represents that area rather than the whole country.
  • Chances (cooler / about usual / warmer): 29% / 41% / 30%. Estimated by Nino Tracker from the size of the anomaly, because the ensemble mean product does not include the model's own odds.
  • Confidence is set by the anomaly's size: under 0.5°C low, 0.5 to 1°C moderate, 1°C or more high.

El Niño right now

Strong El Niño

El Niño is a natural warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean that shifts weather patterns around the world. Over June to August 2026, sea temperatures there averaged about 1.8°C above normal, which counts as a strong event.

Technical details
  • Oceanic Niño Index (ONI): +1.80 for JJA 2026. It is the 3-month average sea surface temperature anomaly in the Niño 3.4 region (5°N to 5°S, 120°W to 170°W), from NOAA.
  • El Niño conditions are +0.5°C or more, La Niña −0.5°C or less, sustained for five overlapping 3-month seasons. Strength: weak 0.5 to 0.9, moderate 1.0 to 1.4, strong 1.5 to 1.9, very strong 2.0 or more.
  • NOAA now uses a relative version of this index (RONI) for official monitoring. The ONI is still published each month.
  • Last updated Sep 23, 2026, 6:56 PM UTC.

Upcoming 7 Days

Maputo
17–34°
Drizzle
22.8° avg
Last year
20.7° avg
2.1° cooler
Beira
18–31°
Partly cloudy
24.6° avg
Last year
24.3° avg
About the same
Nampula
18–34°
Drizzle
24.9° avg
Last year
25.5° avg
0.6° warmer
Pemba
22–30°
Drizzle
26.1° avg
Last year
25.5° avg
0.6° cooler
Last year this week · Sep 23 to 29, 2025

Across these 4 cities, it averaged 24.0°, 0.6° cooler than this week's forecast of 24.6°.

Updated Sep 23, 2026, 6:56 PM UTC

Nino Tracker updates weather data two times a day.