All countries

North America

United States

Warmer than average

Seasonal outlook

September to November 2026

Likely warmer than usual

The European seasonal forecast model expects the United States to average about 0.9°C warmer than usual for this time of year.

Cooler 26%About usual 26%Warmer 48%

Estimated chance of each outcome. With no forecast signal, each would be about 1 in 3.

Moderate confidence
A clear lean, but surprises are possible.
Source
European seasonal forecast (ECMWF), via Copernicus
Technical details
  • Model: ECMWF SEAS5 (system 51) ensemble mean, from the Copernicus Climate Data Store.
  • 2 m air temperature anomaly: +0.86°C, averaged over September to November 2026, relative to the model's 1993 to 2016 average.
  • Taken at the model grid point nearest 39.80, -98.60, so it represents that area rather than the whole country.
  • Chances (cooler / about usual / warmer): 26% / 26% / 48%. Estimated by Nino Tracker from the size of the anomaly, because the ensemble mean product does not include the model's own odds.
  • Confidence is set by the anomaly's size: under 0.5°C low, 0.5 to 1°C moderate, 1°C or more high.

El Niño right now

Strong El Niño

El Niño is a natural warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean that shifts weather patterns around the world. Over June to August 2026, sea temperatures there averaged about 1.8°C above normal, which counts as a strong event.

Technical details
  • Oceanic Niño Index (ONI): +1.80 for JJA 2026. It is the 3-month average sea surface temperature anomaly in the Niño 3.4 region (5°N to 5°S, 120°W to 170°W), from NOAA.
  • El Niño conditions are +0.5°C or more, La Niña −0.5°C or less, sustained for five overlapping 3-month seasons. Strength: weak 0.5 to 0.9, moderate 1.0 to 1.4, strong 1.5 to 1.9, very strong 2.0 or more.
  • NOAA now uses a relative version of this index (RONI) for official monitoring. The ONI is still published each month.
  • Last updated Sep 23, 2026, 6:56 PM UTC.

Upcoming 7 Days

Washington, D.C.
10–28°
Partly cloudy
17.2° avg
Last year
21.8° avg
4.6° warmer
Los Angeles
17–33°
Partly cloudy
24.5° avg
Last year
22.5° avg
2.0° cooler
Chicago
14–26°
Partly cloudy
16.9° avg
Last year
20.1° avg
3.2° warmer
Miami
24–31°
Showers
27.3° avg
Last year
27.0° avg
About the same
Last year this week · Sep 23 to 29, 2025

Across these 4 cities, it averaged 22.9°, 1.4° warmer than this week's forecast of 21.5°.

Updated Sep 23, 2026, 6:56 PM UTC

Nino Tracker updates weather data two times a day.